Syria conflict grows as Egypt and Jordan warn of regional instability

As the crisis grows regionally, it is likely that more countries will seek to become involved.

Egypt and Jordan, two peace partners of Israel, have condemned Israel’s strikes on Syria.

Israel intervened in Syria to prevent attacks on the Druze in Sweida; however, this is now becoming a possible regional crisis.

Egypt and Jordan are often critical of Israeli actions. Egypt is also concerned about Israeli policy in Gaza, and this means that the tensions in Syria may be linked to wider regional tensions that could grow.

According to Syrian state media on Wednesday, “Egypt condemned repeated Israeli attacks on Syrian and Lebanese territories, which constitute a blatant violation against the sovereignty of the two brotherly Arab countries and a breach of international law and relevant UN resolutions.”

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry put out a statement that slammed Israel’s “repeated” violations in Syria. Cairo believes this could increase tensions. Egypt also says this could lead to instability in Syria and Lebanon. This comes amidst a “critical situation in which intensive regional and international efforts are being made, with effective Egyptian participation, to de-escalate and support regional security and stability,” Syrian state media noted.

Meanwhile, in Amman, there was also condemnation. “The Jordanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates condemned the Israeli aggression on the Syrian Arab Republic as a blatant violation of international law and a dangerous escalation targeting Syria’s stability, sovereignty, and security,” another report at Syrian state media noted.

On Tuesday, Amman welcomed a ceasefire in Sweida; however, the ceasefire broke down. Jordan is worried that this could enflame its own border with Syria.

The Jordanian news agency, Petra, quoted the ministry’s spokesperson, Ambassador Sufyan Al-Qudah, “as emphasizing the need to stop these attacks immediately, and the need to respect Syria and its sovereignty,” Syria’s SANA state media noted. Ambassador Al-Qudah noted that Jordan supports Syrian “security, stability, sovereignty, territorial integrity and citizens, stressing that Syria’s security and stability are a pillar of regional stability.”

In both cases, two countries that have peace with Israel are alarmed by Israel’s actions and also by the crisis in Syria.

Jordan has more to lose because it is a border state of Syria. Egypt’s policy is likely to try to raise this issue with its Gulf partners, such as Saudi Arabia. It will also likely send messages to the US.

Meanwhile, the Syrian government said that “after the ceasefire agreement with notables and dignitaries of Sweida city came into effect, a number of outlaw groups have attacked once again the army and internal security forces there.”

The Media Department of the Syrian Defense Ministry stated that army forces continue to respond to the fires targeted at them, adhering to the rules of engagement to protect residents, prevent harm, and ensure the safe return of those who have left the city. The ministry also thought that its media department called on citizens in the city to stay home and report any individuals affiliated with outlaw groups.”

US envoy Tom Barrack says administration is navigating towards calm

US envoy Tom Barrack has said that “we are actively involved with all constituencies in Syria to navigate towards calm and continued productive integration discussions.

The recent skirmishes in Sweida are worrisome on all sides, and we are attempting to come to a peaceful, inclusive outcome for Druze, Bedouin tribes, the Syrian government and Israeli forces.”

He added in a post on X that “misdirection, confusion, and inefficient communication are the greatest challenges in assuring a peaceful and thoughtful integration of each party’s interests. We are in direct, active, and productive discussions with all sides to navigate towards calm and integration.”

As the crisis grows regionally, it is likely that more countries will seek to become involved. Qatar and Turkey back the new Syrian government. They don’t want to see it destabilized. In addition, countries as far away as China and Russia have interests in Syria. Iran may also seek to exploit the situation.

When the Assad regime fell, the Iranian militias and IRGC members had to flee Syria to Iraq. However, Iran has sought to operationalize cells near the Golan in recent months.

Iran may be exploiting the conflict in Sweida to re-insert itself into Syria. It could do this via the drug trade in captogon, or via the arms trade. It has many ways that it may seek to operate from Iraq, for instance.

In Iraq, the Iranian-backed militias have increasingly targeted the Kurdistan region and may also be threatening US forces at the Asad base. This is a concern and could raise flags about what Iran is up to in Syria.