Stop Overthinking Tools—Let ROI Decide

Marketing leaders love debates about tools. I’ve sat in those rooms for years, building companies and advising brands. The truth is simple: if a tool makes more money than it costs, use it. If it doesn’t, move on. No ego. No theater. Just math.

The opinion I’m staking here is blunt: ROI should decide your stack. Not hype, not “must-have” lists, not what your peers post about. The right move is to test, measure, and scale what pays back. This mindset frees you to act faster and win more often.

The Core Rule I Live By

When my team and I look at new tools or channels, we start with a cold question: Will this make more money than it costs for the customer? If the answer is likely yes, we test. If not, we pass. That’s it.

“Plug in and you go… you look at it and it’s just a rational thing. Is this a tool that will make more money than it costs for the customer?” — Erik Huberman

This approach is how we called SMS marketing early. The math was obvious. It costs cents to send a text. Open rates crush email. People who share their number actually care. That mix translates into real revenue gains, not just nice engagement charts.

“It costs you, you know, cents to send a text message… we know text messages are gonna have a higher efficacy because if they’re giving you their phone number, they give a shit.” — Erik Huberman

Why SMS Was an Easy Yes

We didn’t need a 60-slide deck to see it. The signals were there, and the unit economics worked. Compare a text to an email. Emails are cheap, but they get ignored more often. Texts land in a space people check constantly. Response times are faster. Offers convert at higher rates because intent is higher.

Run the numbers on a basic use case. Say you have 50,000 opted-in customers. You send a simple promo at $0.015 per text. That’s $750. If the campaign drives even a small lift in orders—paired with typical average order values—you get quick payback. Then you layer in flows: back-in-stock alerts, abandoned cart nudges, VIP drops. The math compounds.

How I Evaluate Any New Tool

There’s a pattern I repeat with every investment or rollout. It keeps things honest and fast.

• Define one clear revenue goal tied to the tool.
• Set a short test window with a fixed budget.
• Use simple KPIs: conversion rate, AOV, LTV lift, CAC impact.
• Run a clean A/B or holdout if you can.
• Scale only if payback shows up fast.

The goal isn’t perfection. It’s proof. If results show net-positive returns, you’ve earned the right to scale. If not, kill it without angst.

But What About Fatigue and Compliance?

Good pushback. Yes, SMS can annoy people. Yes, you must follow the rules. That’s not a reason to skip it. It’s a reason to do it right. Use tight frequency caps. Segment by intent and recency. Offer real value in every message. And always make opt-outs easy.

Handled with respect, SMS becomes a helpful ping, not a pest. The same idea applies to any tool. The channel isn’t the problem. Lazy execution is.

The Bigger Point

This ROI-first lens isn’t just for SMS. It guides how I invest and operate across the board. Some bets win; others don’t. But the process is consistent: hypothesis, test, verify, scale. It keeps teams from chasing shiny objects and keeps cash focused on what actually moves the needle.

Act Now

If you’re stuck in analysis, pick one tool you’ve been debating and run a tight, two-week test. Define success in dollars, not vanity metrics. If the tool pays back, double down. If it doesn’t, cut it. Repeat. Momentum beats endless meetings.

In short, stop overthinking. Let ROI decide. Your customers—and your P&L—will thank you.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How do I know if a tool is worth testing?

Look for a direct line to revenue. If you can tie the tool to higher conversion, better retention, or lower CAC, it’s worth a small, time-boxed test.

Q: What KPIs should I track during a pilot?

Track conversion rate, average order value, revenue per send or session, and net profit after costs. If you’re seeing fast payback, you’re on the right path.

Q: How do I prevent SMS from annoying customers?

Use permission-based lists, cap frequency, segment by behavior, and send real value. Make opt-outs simple. Respect gets you long-term gains.

Q: What’s a good initial budget for testing?

Keep it small but meaningful—enough to get statistically useful results. For SMS, a few targeted sends to a defined segment can show clear signals fast.

Q: How fast should I expect results?

For direct-response tools like SMS, you can see impact within days. If results lag for weeks without lift, pause and reassess the offer, audience, or channel fit.