The Trump Recession Is Coming

You don’t hear much about a recession anymore. That’s not because Trump was right when he was speaking in North Carolina last August. True, he won and the country certainly hasn’t entered into a second Great Depression. While a Day One boom didn’t take place, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a few thousand points higher than it was then. But the economy is in significantly worse shape than it was a year ago, thanks in large part to actions Trump himself has taken. The public recognizes this, as polls show a clear majority of Americans disapprove of his handling of the economy and blame him for rising prices. Still, media attention has lagged: There is nowhere near the coverage of consumer attitudes that there was last spring.

To be fair, there has been a lot to cover since Trump took office: the gutting of the federal government, the deportation of law-abiding immigrants to foreign gulags, the militarization of L.A. and now D.C., the weaponization of the Department of Justice, airstrikes on Iran, and so much more. But Trump has also done everything possible to push the country toward recession.

His “Liberation Day” tariffs have destroyed relationships with key trading partners, cost thousands of jobs across the country, and caused prices to soar (with much worse to come). Trump has repeatedly insisted that this abrupt return to the protectionism of the late nineteenth century would revitalize American manufacturing and deliver a windfall so enormous it would replace the income tax. The math does not add up, alas. In July, the federal government brought in $29 billion in tariff revenue—a sizable increase from the previous year. Over a full year, that would amount to about $350 billion, which pales in comparison to the nearly $3 trillion generated by the income tax. As for the manufacturing gains, well, just last week John Deere announced hundreds of layoffs, which the company attributed partly to Trump’s tariffs.