China to have 300,000 driverless taxis in 4 top-tier cities by 2030: UBS

China is likely to see 300,000 driverless cabs operate in its four top-tier cities as early as 2030, buoyed by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and its highly competitive electric vehicle (EV) sector, UBS said on Thursday.

The number of robotaxis on the mainland was expected to jump to 4 million by the late 2030s, as more Chinese passengers were willing to embrace new technologies, said Paul Gong, head of China automotive research at UBS.

“Given the fast development of technologies and the increasingly expensive labour cost, autonomous vehicles will be highly helpful in driving productivity,” he said, adding that the robotaxi market in mainland China could eventually hit US$183 billion a year if all the two million taxis and five million cars running on ride-hailing platforms are replaced by driverless cabs.

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Gong was unable to provide a time frame for the full commercialisation of the robotaxi business on the mainland because it hinged on regulation and customer reactions.

His bullish forecast echoed an HSBC estimate last month that robotaxis would account for 6 per cent of the country’s total taxi market. The bank said the market size would top US$40 billion a year initially, though it did not elaborate on when local operators could achieve the goal.

Aside from serving human passengers, autonomous taxis on the mainland could also generate revenue worth US$30 billion a year by offering logistics and delivery services, HSBC said in a research report published on July 14.

Gong said the lower cost of building EVs with autonomous technologies was the biggest growth driver for the expansion of robotaxi fleets on the mainland. The production cost of building a self-driving taxi would be reduced to less than 300,000 yuan (US$41,935), he added.

A couple of years ago, robotaxi executives said each autonomous car cost them about 500,000 yuan.

According to current standards, robotaxis have level 4 (L4) self-driving capabilities. That means they do not require human intervention in most circumstances, according to SAE International, a global standards body. L4 is seen as an important step on the way to level 5 fully autonomous driving, which would enable manufacturers and freight companies to operate driverless fleets.

The mainland’s four first-tier cities – Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen – have begun trial runs of robotaxis. Leading players include Apollo, Pony.ai and WeRide.

They operated dozens of driverless taxis in designated areas and charged fees that were as low as 10 per cent of the average ride at present.

Apollo, Baidu’s self-driving unit, operated one of the world’s largest networks of robotaxis in Wuhan, the capital of central Hubei province, where hundreds of driverless taxis could cover 35 per cent of the city’s roads.

Tesla was also seeking approval from regulators to operate its robotaxi business on the mainland, according to a report published by state-run China Daily last year.

Chinese autonomous driving firm Pony.ai is gearing up to mass produce driverless cabs to make its robotaxis widely available and more affordable, as technological advancements have helped it shorten its path to commercialisation.

The top Chinese robotaxi firms were also looking to expand their businesses abroad to chase greater profits.

Lou Tiancheng, co-founder and chief technology officer of Guangzhou-based Pony.ai, told the Post in July that the company’s production of autonomous cars would pick up in the second half of 2025.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP’s Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2025 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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