Warning for Trump as Surprise Poll Offers Harsh Verdict on Iran Strike

If any political commentators or Democratic politicians are tempted to see the political battle over President Trump’s bombing of Iran through the prism of the run-up to the Iraq War two decades ago, here’s a tip: Don’t.

For politicians and pundits of a certain age, it’s normally assumed that military action will unleash a “rally around the flag” effect, leading the public to reflexively approve of the decisions by the “commander in chief”—particularly if he’s a Republican—and automatically see criticism of him as unpatriotic. But it’s unlikely that we’ll see a similar dynamic this time around.

A surprising new CNN poll shows why. It finds that 56 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s bombing of Iran, while only 44 percent approve. Strikingly, 60 percent of independents disapprove, suggesting the middle of the country is not with Trump on any of this.

On Tuesday, while leaving for the NATO Summit, Trump erupted at Israel and Iran for violating a ceasefire he’d announced on Truth Social, fuming that they “don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.” Iran launched a strike after the ceasefire. But Israel’s response appeared deliberately limited, suggesting both countries want a lasting truce, which Trump highlighted to claim victory.

Trump’s anger—combined with the new CNN poll—illustrates a complicated tension about this moment. On the one hand, if the truce holds, it’s very possible that the CNN polling (which was conducted before the ceasefire) could flip and the public may end up approving of his handling of the situation.